WELLINGTON COUNTY – Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health (WDGPH) is reporting 37 new COVID-19 cases over the weekend (Nov. 5 to 7).
The region’s active case count sits at 70 as of Nov. 8, a significant increase from 31 one week ago.
The case rate per 100,000 population has, as of Nov. 6, risen to 18.9 from 11.2 reported a week ago.
Also increased is the rate of COVID-19 tests returning positive for the virus, from 1.2% on Oct. 28 to 1.9% as of Nov. 4.
The region’s effective reproduction number, used to measure how many additional cases spread or result from a single case, dropped to 0.81 at the end of October but has since risen to 1.26 as of Nov. 6. A value of one or above means cases will increase; below one and spread will eventually cease.
There is one individual in the region hospitalized in an ICU with COVID-19 as of Nov. 4. Their vaccination status is not known.
According to provincial data, as of the morning of Nov. 8, there are 135 unvaccinated persons hospitalized with COVID-19 across the province, of which 54 are in an ICU.
Fully vaccinated individuals account for 67 hospitalizations across the province, with 15 in an ICU.
Delta variant
As of Nov. 8, the Delta variant represents 37.5% of the 1,282 COVID-19 cases confirmed in the health region since the variant was first reported publicly here on June 15.
On June 14, Public Health Ontario (PHO) began allowing all positive COVID-19 samples to be sent for whole genome sequencing, the only way to truly determine how many cases of Delta there are within local health units.
According to PHO data, Delta represented the vast majority (99.7%) of all 1,670 positive COVID-19 tests that had their DNA sequenced between Sept. 19 and Oct. 16.
During that time frame, the majority of those Delta variant cases (63%) were detected in unvaccinated persons.
Over the same time period, labs sequenced 39 positive cases originating from WDGPH, with all returning positive for Delta.
According to WDGPH data, the Delta variant represented an estimated 75% of cases in Wellington County between Oct. 31 and Nov. 6. Region-wide, that estimate is 73%.
Local trends
Wellington County had 20 newly-confirmed cases over the weekend reporting period, with 32 total active cases in the county as of Nov. 8, double the number reported on Nov. 1.
Two thirds of the active cases in Wellington County are in Mapleton Township.
There are 25 active cases in Guelph and 11 in Dufferin County as of Nov. 8.
The death toll attributed to COVID-19 across the region remains unchanged from last week’s total of 127.
Municipality-specific active COVID-19 case counts as of Nov. 8, 2021. (WDGPH image)
Vaccinations
Since Nov. 1, another 1,034 residents have become fully vaccinated with two doses in the WDGPH region, bringing the total as of Nov. 8 to 233,672 or 86% of the population aged 12 or older.
That’s an increase of less than one per cent over last week.
As of Nov. 8, there are 6,678 residents who have received one dose.
According to Ontario’s COVID-19 Advisory Science Table data, as of Nov. 8, there were 120 new cases every day per million people in those unvaccinated, compared with 22 cases per day in those fully vaccinated.
The data concludes there’s an 81.7% risk reduction of contracting a case with two vaccine doses.
In Wellington County 78.8% of eligible residents are two-dose vaccinated as of Nov. 8.
Mapleton continues to have less than 70% of its residents fully vaccinated—consistently the lowest vaccination rate in the county.
Vaccination rates across Wellington County municipalities as of Nov. 8, 2021. (WDGPH image)
Across the region, there are an estimated 11,455 high school students who are vaccinated with two doses; 375 with only a single dose; and 2,055 students who have not yet received a single dose.
In elementary schools falling within the WDGPH catchment area, there are an estimated 4,684 eligible elementary school students at least 12 years old who are vaccinated with two doses; 260 with only a single dose; and 1,236 students who have not yet received a single dose.
Outbreaks
An outbreak of COVID-19 was declared at Orangeville Nissan on Nov. 4.
As of the morning of Nov. 8, six schools within the WDGPH catchment area have reported 10 active cases.
Two schools are located in Drayton, of which Community Christian School, a private elementary school, had an outbreak declared on Nov. 7 with two student cases confirmed as of Nov. 8.
