The shortage of snow this winter means there is only a moderate chance of a spring flood this year, according to a water resources engineer with the Grand River Conservation Authority.
Stephanie Shifflett presented the annual flood outlook to municipal flood co-ordinators Feb. 15.
There is a possibility of flooding from heavy spring rains falling on frozen or saturated ground. However, the risk of floods from snow melt and ice jams is lower than most years.
Precipitation was above or near normal levels in the fall and early winter, but much fell as rain. Frequent melts reduced the snow cover. A survey Feb. 14 showed across the lower two-thirds of the watershed, the snow cover was one-third or less of its long-term average. In the north of the watershed in Dufferin County, which gets lake effect snow off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, snow cover was only half to two-thirds of normal.
In addition, most of the rivers of the watershed are free of ice, reducing the chances of ice-jam flooding.
The GRCA operates seven reservoirs that are used to store water during the spring melt and reduce flooding downstream. The reservoirs are at their normal winter holding level and still have about 50 to 70 per cent of the storage space available.
The process of filling them will start over the next few weeks.
