GUELPH – Centre Wellington and Erin are expected to experience the lion’s share of growth across Wellington County over the next three decades according to the latest projections from an ongoing official plan review.
The report on growth forecasts and allocations, presented by manager of planning policy Sarah Wilhelm at the county planning committee’s March 10 meeting, projects 42 per cent of the county’s population growth by 2051 will occur in Centre Wellington, while 22% is allocated to the Town of Erin.
The county last extended the forecasts and allocations of growth in the official plan to 2041 through Official Plan Amendment No. 99 (OPA 99), which was approved by an Ontario Municipal Board settlement in 2017.
In 2020, the province approved an amendment to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2019) which extended the horizon of the plan to 2051.
The revised growth plan forecasts for the county anticipate a minimum of 160,000 people and 70,000 jobs by 2051, which represents an increase of 20,000 people and 9,000 jobs from the 2041 forecasts in the current official plan.
Centre Wellington, during the extended period from 2041 to 2051, is expected to add 5,900 people, 2,770 housing units, and 3,800 jobs, while Erin would add 6,100 people, 1,920 housing units and 920 jobs in the same time period.
The extended projections show Wellington North with the next highest growth rate, at 12% of the county total, while Minto is allocated 9%, Mapleton 7%, Puslinch 4% and Guelph/Eramosa 2%.
The average annual population growth rate between 2016 and 2051 for the county is now anticipated to be 1.5%, requiring an additional 22,000 new households, or approximately 730 new households a year.
Over the next several decades the county’s employment base is anticipated to steadily grow across a broad range of export-based and population serving employment sectors.
As it grows, Wellington County will become more urban, the report concludes.
“The major driver of population growth is net migration, largely from the large urban centres within the western and northern Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). By 2051, it is anticipated that about 66% of the county’s population base will be concentrated within the urban areas compared to about 51% as of 2016,” the document states.
At the March 31 county council meeting, councillor Andy Lennox pointed out the growth projections should factor in to local housing policy moving forward.
“We need to think carefully about how we’re going to accommodate people. If the nature of our housing will have to change to make housing more attainable, what does that mean, for our communities?” asked Lennox during a discussion on county-wide growth projections.
“We’ve really got to work hard, in my opinion, getting our residents used to the idea that the look and feel of housing may have to change in order to accommodate people to work in our businesses, to meet the needs of our communities.”
Lennox continued, “I think this process, this comprehensive review, needs to be a leader document in that we need to say to people, ‘Okay, this is what we believe is necessary for our county, in order to accommodate the needs not just for today, but for 20, 30 years out.’
“And I think we need to be really thoughtful about what that looks like, and tie it back to the urgent issue we have today around the table.”
Warden Kelly Linton said some pilot projects may be needed to show how different housing options can work in local communities.
“Attainable housing, a different look and feel to housing, can actually be very attractive and it can add to the quality of our neighborhoods substantially,” he said.
“And we have to get beyond the conversation that we’re having right now too many times, to make sure that we have places for people to live.”
The report, “County Official Plan Review – Growth Forecasts and Allocations,” was received for information.
The phase one municipal comprehensive review final report on Urban Structure and Growth was approved in principle and council also directed staff to forward the report to the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing and Wellington County member municipalities.
Staff was also directed to bring forward a draft official plan amendment to implement the growth forecasts and allocations in the report as part of the Municipal Comprehensive Review.
