Wellington County is going to grow.
Councillors approved the county and urban centre growth forecast for up to 2031 at their council meeting on June 26.
Past county forecasts were prepared for 20 years, and used the published Census population as a base. The forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, as set out in the provincial Places to Grow policies, extend to 2031, and include the province’s estimate of population undercount of about 4.75%.
Wellington county’s official plan amendment for growth now matches the Places to Grow time frame.
The official plan amendment they passed will:
– add new population, household, and employment forecasts;
– make some text changes to the growth strategy section;
– re-designate Belwood and Eden Mills from urban centres to hamlets; and
– add policy related to tree planting for lot creation.
That last one will be in line with the county’s Green Legacy program. The optimum tree cover for Wellington County is about 30%, so it makes no sense to allow developers to simply knock down trees when they build. With this policy, they will be forced to replant as much as is feasible. The county will determine the amounts of replanting.
Urban centres are to be the main growth targets. Belwood and Eden Mills were re-designated outside of those targets mainly because of their being on private septic and water services and unlikely ability to provide sewage disposal in the near future.
Here are the projected growth figures for the county, the municipalities in it, and the urban centres within those lower tier municipalities. (The employment figures estimated by C.N. Watson, which did the study, includes jobs where there are no fixed places of work. Those could include such things home occupations and people who work from home by using such things as the internet.)
The county expects to grow from 89,540 in 2006 to 121,520 in 2031. For all projections, there are figures for 2011, 2016, 2026, and 2031. For all figures, visit the county web site at www.county.wellington.on.ca, go to the agenda section, and open the June 26 council agenda. The statistics begin on page 157.
The projections for the county show that 49% of the population is in urban centres in 2006, and that will climb to 58% by 2031. The number of households is 30,030, going to 41,920.
The county also considered employment and noted there were 39,240 jobs here in 2006, and that climbs to 54,990 by 2031.
Wellington North
The population is expected to climb from 11,710 to 15,390 by 2031. That is moving from 4,240 households to 5,790 in that span. Total employment is to jump from 7,130 to 9,150 jobs.
In Arthur, the population is expected to climb from 2,430 to 3,100. The households will go from 870 to 1,170 in 2031.
In Mount Forest, the population climbs from 4,750 to 7,620, and the households rise from 1,920 to 3,050.
Minto
The town will grow from 8,910 to 11,550 by 2031. The number of households will rise from 3,140 to 4,160. The jobs will increase from 3,640 to 4,620.
Broken down according to urban centres, Clifford will see its population rise from 800 to 1,070 by 2031.
The households will go from 310 to 410.
Harriston will have a population increase from 2,130 to 2,720; and the households will go from 800 to 1,050.
Palmerston will move from 2,760 to 4,060 people. The households will rise from 1,020 to 1,490.
Mapleton
The township’s population will grow from 10,320 to 12,490 by 2031. The households will climb from 2,890 to 3,720. Total employment will move from 5,020 to 6,180.
Drayton will grow from 1,790 to 3,100, and increase from 580 households to 1,030.
Moorefield will see its population rise from 490 in 2006 to 1,090 by 2031. The number of households will rise from 150 to 350.
Centre Wellington
The total population in 2006 was 27,290. That will climb to 41,350 by 2031. The households will rise from 9,540 to 14,770. The employment places will jump from 11,320 to 17,690.
In a combined Elora and Salem, the 2006 population was 6,640. That is expected to climb to 10,950. The households will move from 2,320 to 3,920.
In Fergus, the population will climb from 13,430 to 22,760. The number of households will rise from 4,800 to 8,180.
Guelph-Eramosa
The population will rise from 12,640 to 15,290 by 2031. The households will go from 4,070 to 5,020. The total employment will move from 4,370 to 5,860.
Meanwhile, Rockwood’s population is to go from 3,790 to 6,150. The number of households will jump from 1,310 to 2,060.
Erin
The town has a population of 11,680 and is heading to 15,530 by 2031. The number of households will rise from 3,810 to 5,180. The number of jobs will go from 3,550 to 5,630.
In Erin village, the population moves from 3,020 to 4,400. The number households increases from 1030 to 1,530.
For Hillsburgh, the population goes from 1,240 to 2,080. The number of households jumps from 410 to 5,870.
Puslinch Township
The population of Puslinch jumps from 7,010 to 9,920 in 2031.
The number of households includes from 2,340 to 3,290. The total employment is 4,210 to 5,870 jobs.
In Aberfoyle, that means the population climbs from 210 to 410 by 2031. The number of households goes from 70 to 130.
In Morriston, the population jumps from 450 to 550. The number of households climbs from 150 to 180.
