Centre Wellington councillors accepted Wellington County’s growth projections as a working document on Monday night – but with some reluctance.
Councillors also hinted that forced growth might be a way to force the provincial government to come up with more cash for infrastructure, since it is the province that is driving the growth.
Fergus and Elora have limited sewage capacity, and expansion of the plants will cost millions.
Councillor Bob Foster said he was a little concerned about the wording of the township planning committee’s recommendation, which stated that the council endorses the numbers contained in the report.
Foster said the township already has 27,300 people, and the county’s projection is Centre Wellington will grow to 41,000 people by 2031.
Foster called it “potential urban sprawl” and said, “I think that’s a concern for our residents.”
He asked if endorsing those figures would be endorsing urban sprawl.
Township planner Brett Salmon explained the county has the responsibility of creating growth projections, and that the figures are forecasts “not targets.”
He said the county is doing the projections partly to set up its new development charges, but the municipalities “would be required to follow” the forecast.
He explained that in 2001, the county had done similar projections, and Centre Wellington had set aside land to expand its urban boundaries in Fergus and Elora.
Salmon noted that the 20-year forecast in 2001 was for the population to climb to 36,100 from 25,000, an increase of just over 44 per cent. He added that the current 20 year projection is now at 41 per cent, so comparing 20-year projections, “It is a little bit less.”
Salmon said that looking at the latest county figures, places such as Fergus can likely meet the growth targets “without further expansion,” of the urban boundaries, but such forecasting is “tough, because we don’t know the provincial targets.”
Salmon said the provincial Places to Grow regulations state that growth should first take place with intensification, and then greenfields lands, and, finally, urban boundary expansion.
He said of the last one, “It’s likely not to be, with these numbers.”
But councillor Shawn Watters, the chairman of the planning committee, said he is considering since the planning meeting that Erin and Puslinch Township are partly in the provincial greenbelt, which means little or no growth in some parts of those municipalities. He wondered if that could create pressure for more growth in Fergus and Elora.
Watters said that there could be some problems, and mentioned Rockwood could be in some difficulty, too, unless it reaches a deal with Guelph over sewage.
Rockwood has no sewage treatment plant, and sends its sewage to the city.
Salmon said the county will have to take the figures in its projections back to the province, and is asking its municipalities for endorsement, likely so it has a strong argument for its forecast.
Watters said growth is becoming a problem because there are constant servicing issues.
He said there is frustration with proposed developments because the province has a “lack of participation on upgrades.”
He added, “With growth, we’re going to be dealing with the same tough issues. I’m glad Ted’s here.”
Watters was referring to MPP Ted Arnott, who was attending the meeting as a spectator.
He had told council earlier that he will work with the township and bring its issues to Queen’s Park.
Salmon conceded that, “If growth went to 300 units a year [in Centre Wellington], we could have some problems with cash flow.”
Mayor Joanne Ross-Zuj said the infrastructure needs and growth issues are “an ongoing battle, not just here, but across Canada.”
Places to Grow has set a population of 321,000 for Wellington County, and that includes Guelph, but it does not state where the growth will go, the city or the county.
The county growth forecast states that the city is scheduled to grow between 175,000 and 195,000 by 2031, and the county growth range is from 116,000 to 126,000 people in that same period.
To make things even more sketchy, the province estimated the 2001 census missed nearly 5% of the population in the census, so it assumes the county had a population figures of 2001 were 85,000 instead of 81,143.
Foster said of the growth that Guelph might be able to take more of it than the county, and that would relieve the pressure locally. He wondered if the county is seeking the lower (116,000) population target.
“I believe that is the case,” Salmon said.
Foster then asked, “Can we ask that Guelph absorb most of the growth?
Salmon replied, “Anybody can ask, but the city has its own issues. Both want to demonstrate to the province they’ve done a reasonable projection.”
Council then accepted the county projections.
