Corn and other crops in Ontario are in extreme jeopardy, as farmers across North America face “one of the worst growing seasons in 25 years,” according to a University of Guelph researcher.
“It’s looking worse and worse by the day,” said Evan Fraser, an associate professor of geography whose work involves the study of social and economic impacts of agriculture on a global scale.
South of the border, the time when a good rainfall could still save the crops has “come and gone,” in many areas, said Fraser. However, because of the later growing season, some southwestern Ontario farmers may still be able to salvage their crops, if significant rainfall occurs right away.
Fraser spoke to The Wellington Advertiser by phone from the Bruce Peninsula on Monday.
“Here, the corn still hasn’t all tasseled,” he said, while most of the corn in the region around Guelph has pretty well all reached the critical tassel stage.
Once the corn tassels, Fraser explained, there is about a two week period when rainfall is required to allow the pollen to get from the tassel to the silk of the corn plant, to allow for germination required to form cobs.
Any hope of a reasonable corn crop will be gone if the area experiences “another 10 days of this hot, dry weather,” said Fraser.
And a few scattered showers won’t do the trick, either. Area farmers will need significant rainfall.
“I think what the farmers are looking for is two or three days of pretty good rainfall. That would help the corn crop a lot.”
With a drought this widespread, Fraser pointed out, “the global food security implications are really pretty awful.
“We’ve got extremely high corn prices as a result of this drought. Prices have risen by about 30 per cent in the last three weeks,” he said.
Fruit producers are another group hard hit by weather this year, as a result of warm weather, followed by a flash frost early in the spring.
“We’ve lost most of our soft fruit. Apple growers I’ve talked to tell me they are expecting yields of about 20 per cent (of normal); cherries, almost nothing; peaches, very few,” said Fraser.
Henry Van Ankum, District 10 (Bruce, Grey and Wellington) director for the Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO) agrees this year’s drought is historic in proportion. He has to think back to 1988 for a comparably dry year.
“It’s very concerning because in recent times, I don’t remember a summer this dry,” he said.
While conceding “we are very nearly at the point,” where rainfall is critical, Van Ankum is optimistic the crop won’t be a total loss.
Crops did get off to a good start this spring, he notes, adding that modern crop strains and hybrids have a “higher stress tolerance,” than was typical in the past.
Still, he points out, “There is no doubt crops are in real need of moisture.”
Van Ankum says corn in this area entered the critical tassel stage about two weeks earlier than normal “and that’s not a good time to be in a drought situation.”
Wheat growers will fare better than corn producers this year, Van Ankum expects.
“Most of the cereal crops are getting to the end of the growing season,” he noted, adding winter wheat yields have been about average.
“It’s the corn and soybeans that are really suffering.”
Ironically, Van Ankum said a risk management plan made permanent by the provincial government in the 2011 budget after a four-year pilot program, won’t help farmers much if the crops fail.
“Risk management probably helps more on the price side,” he explained, adding low yields will actually mean better prices for corn. “Crop insurance will be more the tool we will need this year.”
Gordon Flewelling, president of the Wellington County Federation of Agriculture, said livestock farmers, as well as cash croppers, will be hard hit by the drought because hay crops are far below normal yields.
What little rain has fallen, has come mostly in the form of flash thunderstorms, said Flewelling, with most of the moisture “ending up in the sewers as runoff.
“We’re going to need a week of really gentle rain to do any good,” he said. “Most farmers are certainly going to feel the pinch. There’s no doubt about it.”
Flewelling said farmers, although generally stoic about weather-related setbacks, are getting concerned.
“Farmers understand that’s part of the business, that you work with Mother Nature every year – but it’s getting serious.”
