Despite the controversy currently surrounding the proposed Nestle Waters operation on Middlebrook Road west of Elora, it appears it would take the combination of that operation working at capacity, as well as substantial municipal growth, to push the township to look for new sources of water in the near future.
Even then that would still be between 10 to 20 years away.
Without Nestlé in the equation, Centre Wellington might still need to be looking at additional sources of water by 2036.
On Sept. 11, Centre Wellington councillors spent the better part of the morning listening to municipal, Grand River Conservation Authority and Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change representatives speak on how their respective departments or agencies respond to permits to take water and the protection of water sources in the province.
From the outset, Mayor Kelly Linton stressed the meeting was an education session for council.
Centre Wellington CAO Andy Goldie noted the day’s presentation would provide more detail than a meeting held earlier as part of council orientation.
“Since initially being contacted by Nestlé Waters regarding the possible acquisition of the Middlebrook permit to take water, township staff have met or talked with over the phone numerous times with GRCA and MOECC staff on the issue of protecting our long-term water supply,” Goldie said, noting these discussions will continue.
Those making presentations at the Sept. 11 meeting included:
– Martin Keller, Lake Erie Region Source Protection Program manager;
– James Etienne, senior water resource engineer, GRCA;
– Sonja Strynatka, senior hydrogeologist, GRCA;
– Dan Dobrin, MOECC;
– Colin Baker, Centre Wellington managing director of infrastructure services; and
– Kyle Davis, Wellington County Risk Management Official.
Also at the meeting was Ray Blackport, of Blackport Hydrology, assisting the township in review of Nestlé’s permit to take water application.
The meeting provided councillors with information on the water supply in Centre Wellington followed by the MOECC permit to take water process and commenting.
Councillors were also provided with information on the Drinking Water Source Protection Program in Wellington County and an overview of the various aspects of protecting both water quality and quantity.
This was followed by comments on the long term water supply master plan for Centre Wellington
Baker and Strynatka provided overviews of Centre Wellington’s water supply in the local and regional groundwater.
Strynatka first focussed on local geology looking at Swan Creek, Salem Creek, cold water streams, the Orangeville and Elmira moraines, exposed bedrock along the Grand River and groundwater which flows from northeast to southwest.
She said the local shallow groundwater system can be influenced by topography.
Strynatka noted that beneath the overburden are areas of shallow, intermediate and deep bedrock.
In the shallow bedrock, water travel is determined by local topography towards the Grand River.
In the deeper levels water flows from the northwest to the southeast and is big enough not to be influenced by local topography.
These upper levels include the upper Guelph formation, a lower Eramosa/Goat Island Formation and the deep bedrock – the Gasport Formation.
Both the Guelph and Gasport Formations are regionally important aquifers, she explained for private and municipal water supplies.
She noted the Eramosa foundation tends to inhibit water flows between the Guelph and Gasport bedrock formations.
She said many private wells extend only into the overburden or the Guelph formation bedrock.
On the other hand, municipal wells extend into the deep bedrock of the Gasport formation.
The Middlebrook well also extends into the deep Gasport formation.
She also spoke on aquifer vulnerability and the most vulnerable areas to the Guelph formation as being along the Grand River where it is the most exposed.
The last component are then wellhead protection areas – which have been drafted for all municipal wells in the GRCA watershed.
In terms of municipal wells, Baker said the township has nine production wells – six in Fergus and three in Elora.
Overall the township has a permit capacity of 15,028 m3/day however in terms of actual demand, Baker said the average demand in 2011 was 4,927 m3/day.
The township permit requires the township to revisit its well field capacity either by Dec. 31, 2023 or when average daily pumping exceeds 7,515m3 per day – whichever occurs first.
Baker said the township has numerous bedrock and shallow well monitoring locations which monitor water levels on a continuous basis.
“We have a pretty good record of what is going on and how the aquifer responds to pumping.”
In addition, Baker said the wells are also used to monitor water quality.
Looking at the township water supply, Baker said the municipality keeps tabs on uncommitted reserve capacity to service population and employment growth.
As of January 2015, Baker said the township has a max day permitted firm capacity 13,064 m3/day with a three year average day max demand of 7,103 m3/day.
Committed capacity including new subdivisions or the new hospital, which will be coming online but not yet constructed accounts for 2,967 m3/day.
That leaves an uncommitted reserve capacity 2,994 m3/day for growth.
He estimated that would be the equivalent of 2,700 building units.
Currently, growth in Centre Wellington is about 200 units per year based on Wellington County growth projections.
As of January 1, 2015, the Fergus-Elora Water Supply System has reached 77% of its total capacity.
Baker added that based on new growth projections, water demands will increase by approximately 211 m3/day (195 units) each year. He noted that as a general rule, once a municipality reaches 85% of its capacity it should begin the search for a new water source.
Based on current growth projections he anticipated that the process to begin the seach should begin in the next five to seven years.
“It takes about five years to establish a new well,” Baker added. He said another trend to be aware of is the impact of water conservation efforts which are resulting in a flatlining of water use over the past five years – even with a growing population.
Councillor Steven Kitras asked what impact developments such as Pearle Hospitality/Elora Mill.
Baker said that potential use is already factored into the uncommitted reserve capacity.
Near the end of the meeting mayor Linton asked for clarification on the Irvine groundwater demand calculations.
“I just want to make clear what this says and what it doesn’t say.”
Etienne said it was based as close as possible to actual information.In 2009, the study was based on actual information available.Since then, the ministry has collected a lot more information.
The chart included with the dark blue bar represents the impact if the Middlebrook operation drew water at 100% of its allowed capacity.
Etienne noted the Tier 2 calculations presented included numbers for both potential and actual water use at Middlebrook.
Actual use at Middlebrook in 2015 only amounted to 10% of its permit capacity.
He said the chart looks at the what if with Nestlé utilizing the entire capacity.
He realized the township was dealing with a number of complex water resource issues at the same time. Originally when looking at figures in Centre Wellington based on existing trends Etienne said the Irvine River was shown to be under moderate stressed – under future conditions.
But newer trends suggesting a flatlining or decreased use may mean the next level of studies and assessment may never be needed.
He said the Irvine subwatershed currently lies in the range of low to moderate stress.
Updated calculations from the 2009 Tier 2 study noted changes to municipal use and that there were large water users no longer in operation.
Etienne said those calucations actually dropped projected use from 5.3% to 5.1%
Addition of the Middlebrook (at 100%) only increased water demand to 6.4% – not triggering any requirement for Tier 3 work.
Tier 3 studies are a more tightly defined area of municipal intakes and wells within subwatersheds assigned a significant or moderate stress level.
Next, Etienne said projections were made based on growth forecasts.
Using straight line projections the use hits 8.2% in 2026 and 10.1% – based on projected use and if Nestlé operated the Middlebrook well at full capacity.
Throughout the process, Nestlé has stated its potential acquisition of Middlebrook Water Co. would be for use as a supplementary source to its main production well in Aberfoyle.
Etienne stressed the projections were based on estimates of water use and community growth over 10 to 20 years.
“But what this indicates is that we still don’t think we would be in the position to start Tier 3 studies for at least another 10 years.”
He said Tier 3 risk assessment would look at the sustainability of the municipality’s drinking water supplies.
“At the moment we are literally we are a point where we could start a study but couldn’t finish it until there was more detail from a long term water supply exercise.”
Baker said Centre Wellington is currently working on a long term water supply master plan to integrate infrasturcutre requirements with existing and future land use.
The purpose is to define how the township will provide a safe and reliable source of water to residents and businesses.
Part of that process includes evaluating water supply alternatives and prioritize projects and programs.
Reference slides from the council presentation are posted online within the Sept. 11 Centre Wellington committee of the whole agenda package. http://www.centrewellington.ca/ourgovernment/Documents/Committe%20of%20the%20Whole%20Meetings/2015%20-%20Agendas/CWA150911.pdf
